Tuesday, August 05, 2008

Registration Changes Are Bad News For Republicans...

...but also a clear warning to Democrats.

The bad news for the Republicans:
In several states, including the traditional battlegrounds of Nevada and Iowa, Democrats have surprised their own party officials with significant gains in registration. In both of those states, there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans, a flip from 2004. No states have switched to the Republicans over the same period, according to data from 26 of the 29 states in which voters register by party. (Three of the states did not have complete data.)

In six states, including Iowa, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, the Democratic piece of the registration pie grew more than three percentage points, while the Republican share declined. In only three states — Kentucky, Louisiana and Oklahoma — did Republican registration rise while Democratic registration fell, but the Republican increase was less than a percentage point in Kentucky and Oklahoma. Louisiana was the only state to register a gain of more than one percentage point for Republicans as Democratic numbers declined.
The bad news for the Democrats:

Over the same period, the share of the electorate that registers as independent has grown at a faster rate than Republicans or Democrats in 12 states. The rise has been so significant that in states like Arizona, Colorado and North Carolina, nonpartisan voters essentially constitute a third party.
The Democrats need to think long and hard as to why voters, after the absolutely disastrous eight years of Bush, are wary of embracing them the way they should, as the only viable alternative. When you are on the big stage you can't get stage fright and the Democrats have cowered in the wings for so long now, afraid to attack Bush and the thugs he brought into government, that there is now a major shift in the country to belong to neither party. Most Americans hate the Republicans, but can't quite trust the Democrats, and that distrust is solely the responsibility of Reid, Pelosi and their ilk; if you won't get rid of the crooks, why should we think you are any better than they are?

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